Most Surprising Acting Oscar Wins

T10 surprising acting wins (Among the minority w/Drama Globe/Bafta snub/loss combo, counting a Com Globe as a nom – or double snubs for supporting): 

74 Art Carney - The only Bafta snub of the field; 3 of his co-nominees got Drama Globe noms. All of his co-nominees had been nommed before but hadn't won. Tonto was the Academy's least favorite of the nominees' films. Nicholson won NY/Bafta/Drama Globe and was in a BP/BD nominee...only time this magnificent combo lost.

00 Marcia Gay Harden - Breaking it down, McDormand and Dench won too recently. After that...I don't know. Hudson got the Globe and was the pretty ingenue, while Walters was the Bafta winner and was the due vet esp with her having won Globe/Bafta for Rita 17 years earlier.

65 Shelley Winters – the only precursor was the Globes, and she was the only one not nommed by them. This made her the first 2-time Sup Actress winner, just a few years after her 1^st win. They weren’t into Gordon’s film, 2 actors had just won the year before for musicals, and possibly the Othello ladies split; also her 1^stnominated (lead) role was in a BD winner and her Anne Frank role also was a BD/BP nominee so she had a strong filmography to back her up.

92 Marisa Tomei – some think that being the only American helped, same w/Helen Hunt. Richardson had NY/Bafta wins and a Globe nom. It helps that 3 of her co-nominees were also ignored in the other major categories, and the exception Redgrave already had an Oscar and her movie’s lead was getting a statue anyway. These were Plowright and Richardson’s first noms too, and both have as of now yielded fewer noms than Tomei. Judy Davis also has fewer but it was a lead one that occurred before this. Perhaps just weak competition with Tomei’s movie sticking out in this group.

76 Beatrice Straight - Grant obvs wasn't winning; she'd just won and her film didn't get other major noms. Alexander was precursor-ignored while her (eventually winning) co-star was not. Carrie didn’t get that much support overall which is expected given their feelings about horror, and the crazy mom can be forgotten next to the blood-drenched psychic killer. They obviously liked Network a lot and without a Rocky sup actress their choices were a scorned wife making a passionate speech and a child prostitute…one of these is much more Academy-friendly.

72 Eileen Heckart - No freaking way was Winters (the Globe winner/only Bafta overlap) tying KHep as the winningest women esp given Poseidon’s reception. Actually, the Oscars weren’t really into any of the nominees’ films. Berlin and Tyrell are nobodies. I could see Page winning since it was her 5^th nom and she’d been waiting 2 decades. But Heckart was a past Globe-winning nominee too and she’d gotten a Tony nom for the role (one of 3 losses).

98 James Coburn – Sag nom, last chance for attention esp given that he died just a few years later. 2 of his co-nominees’ films were mostly ignored, Rush had just won and his movie was winning 2 acting Oscars already, so between Harris and Coburn for the vet win?
70 Helen Hayes - No one cared about Landlord or Grant. Karen Black’s obscure though they did like her movie. Kellerman’s obscure but she was the only acting nom for a BP/BD nominee which helps. Globe winner/only BG nominee was in the same movie helping w/exposure but Hayes had a better comeback and last chance story; thus double Tony winner became double Oscar winner soon after her last Tony nom as a goodbye gift almost 4 decades after her last win.
96 Frances McDormand - Blethyn won Drama Globe/Bafta, and Thomas and Watson got both noms. The Academy liked her film better than Watson's or Keaton's. But...Sag win. While this was Blethyn's breakout, during McDormand's breakout the previous decade she'd gotten an Oscar nom and a Tony nom so it was kinda her time. Esp since Blethyn was already in her 50s, which is unusual for a win in Actress.
73 Jack Lemmon - Redford lacked precursors. Brando already had 2 lead Oscars including the previous year when he declined and tried to embarrass the Academy. Pacino was on his 1^st lead nom (which the Academy wasn't that into) while Lemmon was on his 4^th with his hailed SLIH losing to the Best Picture lead perf and his hailed Apartment losing despite winning Best Picture. He also dragged along another acting nominee which only not-yet-due Nicholson (who also hadn't been nommed for a BD nominee) was also able to do.

*Qualified but not surprising:  Overdue Sarandon won the Sag and brought major Oscar noms w/her.

Because the Vogue editorial came out today and it is beautiful: