Based on T3 historical precursors. I count comedy/musical Globe noms (and split Baftas) as half credit, except for supporting bids/campaigns that wind up there (i.e. Chicago). And I kind of ignore the Baftas being after Oscars until a few years ago, because even subsequent support shows that a large body views a perf as worthy of recognizing during the same time frame. Of course, this combined with the rise of SAG awards help account for an over-representation of recent perfs.
10. 94 Hugh Grant/4 Weddings and a Funeral, Comedy Globe + Bafta (BG) – Even before taking Sag into account, 4/5 Oscar nominees make sense. And if the British bloc exists, they rallied behind Hawthorne en masse since he plays a British King, and he actually won the Bafta the year afterward due to the trickiness of international release dates. I kind of feel that, head-to-head, Bafta would have gone with the British King; The King’s Speech wound up with 3 acting Baftas, after all.
9. 65 Oskar Werner/The Spy Who Came in From the Cold, Globe + Solo Bafta nom (Gb) – He got his 1st Oscar nom that year & it’s hard to get 2 in a year even when one isn’t a fresh face. He’d have had a good shot at a supporting win though.
8. 78 Mona Washbourne/Stevie, NY win + bg – A special case. The critics actually went for her years later when the film finally opened more widely. Which implies that barely anyone actually saw the movie when it was Oscar eligible.
7. 85 Rosanna Arquette/Desperately Seeking Susan, Bg – Bafta went for supporting but after Globes had gone for lead so the likely bid was for lead; comedies don’t do as well as dramas, esp when the perf in question doesn’t even win the comedy Globe.
6. 96 Paul Scofield/The Crucible, Bg – Recently SAGs are the top precursor, and he missed. This could have been his omgcomeback after his only lead nom (& win) 3 decades ago, but that happened in ’94 already, so there was less story potential.
5. 03 Scarlett Johansson/Lost in Translation, Bg – Sag miss, and she split votes between her 2 Globe-nommed performances.
4. 97 Sigourney Weaver/The Ice Storm, Bg – Sag, again. However, she’d racked up 3 noms in 3 years in the 80s, so this could have been a nice comeback. Alas, Driver was in BP nommed Good Will Hunting. Plus the Oscars have a weird relationship with Ang Lee.
3. 53 Spencer Tracy/The Actress, Gb – While he won 9 Oscar noms, his 2 wins were before Globes started, so the Globes probably wanted to give him a win from any bait.
*2. 74 Liv Ullman/Scenes of a Marriage, Ngb – Her 72 nom was for the 1st film not in English or French to get a Picture nom, and the 2nd was in 73, also starring Ullman (It would be over 2 decades until the next non-English-language nom.). However, this was ineligible thanks to a Swedish TV airing, but if she had been snubbed regardless.
1. 87 Vanessa Redgrave, Prick Up Your Ears, Ngb – A year of all 1-nom actresses, which is the only time this has happened in the last 30 years (and never in lead). Dukakis was obviously the frontrunner to win, sure. Archer got Bafta and Globe noms (and was in a BP nominee w/an Actress nominee like Dukakis), so one step down. Aleandro & Ramsey (for something called Throw Mama from the Train) at least got Globe noms, though that’s 1 of Redgrave’s 3 honors. But, Sothern? Redgrave was a 5x Oscar nominee at that point, with 1 win. It’s not like Oscars get tired of someone from 5 noms over 2 decades – Meryl racked up 11 in the equivalent time period. And it’s the only time Redgrave got into Bafta’s top 4-5. Her 6th nom a few years later actually had no precursors going for it at all and she got in over her co-star who snagged a Bafta nom. Though it looks like 19 years later Redgrave will finally get another nom – in the meantime she’s been picking up various major noms and awards for her TV longform work.
And attractive person of the month, Trace Lehnhoff from Flipping Out:
No comments:
Post a Comment